Credit Risk Deterioration – Early Warning Indicators
The financial crisis had a devastating effect on the financial sector and, in turn, the global economy. After the dust settled, it became clear that many firms had failed to invest enough resources to formulate effective early warning systems, which are critical in detecting the initial signs of credit deterioration and default. Although capital markets are returning to conditions suggesting that the crisis is finally subsiding, the best institutions should remain cautious. All banks should continue to strengthen these early warning indicators, which necessitates proactive and dynamic systems and metrics that are regularly updated.
In the quest for enterprise risk management, several banks have recently undertaken radical reorganisation efforts to integrate different risk teams into a more collaborative whole. However, any permutation of reporting lines and designation of roles can prove to be an expensive – and ultimately, desultory – exercise in the absence of a sound and communicable risk culture. Mitigating this situation requires a top-down approach to setting the risk appetite of the business, which can be mediated by risk factors collected through a bottom-up approach.
The Dodd-Frank Financial Reform Act is the response of the United States to the deepest global recession since the Second World War. The fact that the sub-prime mortgage contagion germinated within the financial services industry, before spreading across entire economies, is reflected in the multi-faceted nature of the Act. When President Obama introduced the Financial Reform Plan in 2009, providing the foundation for the Dodd-Frank Act, he termed it the most sweeping overhaul of regulation since the Great Depression.
Since the onset of the credit crisis, there have been a number of high profile failures in the financial services industry, which have exposed glaring shortcomings in the corporate governance framework at major banks. Previously, the governance framework at banks gave undue precedence to revenues and reward at the unfortunate expense of effective risk management procedures. Moreover, there was insufficient oversight of senior management by the Board and organisational structures were too complex, which further exacerbated an already substandard framework. Now, however, significant changes are being pursued by major banks to redefine this framework and accord greater authority to Risk Managers.
Emerging markets can be defined as a nation's economy that is progressing toward becoming advanced, as shown by some liquidity in local debt and equity markets and the existence of some form of market exchange and regulatory body.
What makes this crisis unique, amongst other things, is the unprecedented volatility that we have seen during 2008. More importantly, this volatility was not limited to any particular asset class, but was evident across the board. Various risks were simply not captured, deemed plausible or accounted for. This has resulted in great pressure both internal and from the regulatory entities all over the world.
Much has been said about risk divisions, particularly in the wake of the brutal financial meltdown last year. However, risk divisions are upping their game in changing the methods of how they do business. Though banks may not agree on which areas of market and credit risk should overlap at present, the move to integrate the two is definitely on the cards for the future.